Since I was able to get my tape done early this week, I decided to give you my breakdowns in written form for the people who like reading. Without further ado let’s get into this bad boy.
Dean Barry vs Mike Jackson
Let’s start by saying this. What in the ever-loving hell is this fight doing on a UFC card and why is it being sanctioned? Mike Jackson is not an MMA fighter, and he is certainly not UFC level by any stretch of the imagination. He was brought into the UFC to be a guy that CM Punk could possibly beat. Now of course he beat almost 40-year-old professional wrestler CM Punk. His previous, and only other MMA fight he took on Mickey Gall, the other guy who fought CM Punk, and Mickey ran through him. Dean Barry is, on the other hand, and actual MMA fighter. By no means do I think he is UFC level. All 4 of his wins have come in the 1st round. The one time he fought a 2nd round, against a 2-7 fighter at the time, he got submitted 39 seconds in. I’ve typed way too much on this fight. Barry should walk right through Jackson, and this should be the last we have to witness a Mike Jackson fight.
Bets to consider: None, you couldn’t pay me to wager anything on this fight from any angle.
Marcin Prachnio vs Philipe Lins
Prachnio is a polish striker who fights in a traditional Karate style. He has a good kick game and throws some tricky techniques. He has a very good high kick and a nice stance switch leg kick. He throws big hooks with not much in the way of defense. He dips his head straight to the ground when he throws hooks and is primed for a counter uppercut or straight shots. Rountree was able to exploit this hole when they fought. His run in the UFC has been less than stellar. He debuted against Sam Alvey. A fight in which he played right into Alveys wheelhouse. He did ok early but once Alvey was connecting he opted to walk forward hands down right into a straight shot that put him out. Get ready for a trend. He got caught with a head kick from Ankalaev in the 1st round. I’ll give him a pass there based on where Ankalaev is at right now. Then he gets Mike Rodriguez. This is important for this matchup with Lins. Rodriguez was able to clinch him against the fence and just batter him. He has nothing in the way of defense in the clinch position. Philipe Lins is coming down from Heavyweight for this fight. He isn’t an overly big Heavyweight, and he has fought at 205 before so I’m not concerned about that factor. He has very fast hands for a large man and will have a 4” reach advantage in this matchup. He throws very fast, powerful counters and doesn’t mind playing that game. He throws nice kicks to the body. If he chooses to, I think he can hang back and wait for Prachnio to come in with his wild hooks, snipe him from the outside and likely put him out. Lins has been knocked out a bunch in his career so that is a concern. That being said Prachnio has been knocked out a fair share as well. This fight is 50/50 to me so I would say if you want to play it straight up then take wherever the dog money is.
Bets to consider: Under 2.5/FDGTD
Aoriqileng vs Cameron Else
More often than not this fight is going to be fast and furious for however long it lasts. One thing we can count on here is that Aoriqileng will fight for your dollar. He has only been finished twice (both by sub) in 30 professional fights. Aoriqileng is very long for a Flyweight. This fight is taking place at Bantamweight but I think he will fill out very well. That being said he will be at a 2” height and reach disadvantage. He fights with a lot of aggression and packs a ton of power. He has a very fast right hand and when it lands it does damage. He is very high volume and is not afraid to take one to give one. He lands 6.03 strikes/min and absorbs 8.3. He is susceptible to a good jab. Jeff Molina was having a lot of success popping the jab out and keeping him off of him. Particularly in the 3rd round when his head movement was nowhere to be found. He has decent takedown defense (54%). He made Cody Durden work hard for the takedowns. Cameron Else is what we like to call a “shit eating wild man”. He embodies the kill or be killed mentality. All 10 of his wins have come in the first round. He has only been out of the 1st round 3 time and has lost all 3. He packs a ton of power but not much beyond that on the feet. He has a pretty decent ground game. Unless he takes it there, I see this fight playing out on the feet. On the feet I think Aoriqileng is going to get the better of the exchanges and probably finish Else in either the 2nd or 3rd round.
Bets to consider: Under 1.5/FDGTD/Aoriqileng ITD/Else Rd 1
Tyson Pedro vs Ike Villanueva
Tyson Pedro is coming off of a 4-year layoff. That’s really the only question mark in this fight. Other than that Pedro should roll fairly easily in this spot. Ike is a very straight forward fighter to breakdown. He is a flat-footed boxer who has power. He has about zero head movement and is very hittable. He is very heavy on his lead leg and is wide open for leg kicks. Marcin Prachnio was able to chew his leg up and eventually finish him with a huge body kick. Pedro is a very powerful striker with very fast kicks and heavy hands. He also has slick submissions on the ground, and I see that as a legit path to victory. This fight should be really straight forward. I think Pedro is going to maul Ike and probably finish him in the 1st. I guess Ike has a punchers chance but I just don’t see it.
Bets to consider: Under 1.5/FDGTD/Pedro Rd1
Dwight Grant vs Sergey Khandozhko
Khandozhko is coming off of a 2.5-year layoff. He is 29 years old so that isn’t too much of a concern to me. I think he could come in and look improved. He is a Karate style striker with flashy kicks. He has a fast spin kick that he will throw to the body and the head. He is a lower volume striker (2.83 strikes/min). That being said he only absorbs 1.7 strikes/min. When he does throw straight shots, they are fast and accurate. A lot of the time he tends to strike with winging hooks and kicks. He is a hard guy to track down in the striking realm. In the clinch he shows good takedown defense. When he does get taken down to the ground, he shows good getups as well. He will use the getups to enter into his own takedowns or break out into open space. He does show submissions on his record so while the stand up is where he excels, but he isn’t a fish out of water on the mat. Dwight Grant uses pressure and heavy strikes to get in range. He mixes in the low kicks well with his punches and he could find success in this matchup. He has been hurt before with straight shots. He doesn’t show any submission losses, but he was stuck in a very tight guillotine against Sekulic. He probably would have lost if there was more time left on the clock. I favor Sergey ever so slightly, but the layoff does have me off it a little bit.
Bets to consider: Over 2.5/FGTD/Khandozhko SUB???
Jordan Wright vs Marc-Andre Barriault
This fight is taking place at a catchweight of 190 lbs, which is weird. Jordan Wright is the epidemy of a glass cannon. Much like Cameron Else, he is a kill or be killed fighter. Wright has been out of the 1st round in a grand total of 2 fights. He is massive for the weight class and really should be a great fighter. He is a very skilled striker who is fast and carries a lot of power. Where he lacks is defense. He basically has none to speak of. He is vicious in the clinch and doesn’t let people off the hook. MAB is a pretty general fighter. He keeps a tight high guard. He has good striking not great. He has power but not massive. He is typically very durable, although he was disposed of in about 15 seconds last time out by Chidi. This fight should not last long at all. I favor MAB slightly but I can’t touch either of the money lines.
Bets to consider: Under 1.5/FDGTD/MAB T(KO)/Wright Rd 1
Charles Jourdain vs Lando Vannata
I broke this fight down in great detail for the “Dog of the Week” article. I would suggest you check that out if you haven’t already. In short form I think that Lando is going to be too fast and too elusive for Jourdain. Lando uses a lot of movement and stance switches which makes him a hard guy to gameplan for. He also will have the wrestling in his back pocket which I like a lot. I do worry about Jourdain in round 3. He is an absolute monster in the 3rd round. If the fight is 1-1 going into the 3rd, I will be very nervous.
Bets to consider: Lando ML/FGTD/Jourdain Rd 3
Mudaerji Su vs Manel Kape
This is going to be a very fun fight. Manel Kape should be able to win this fight fairly easily if he fights a smart gameplan. Problem is that I can’t trust him to do so. He is very fast athletic fighter. He should have the grappling advantage in this fight. He says that he is going to come out wrestling. If I could trust that then I would be very heavy on him. This is a big step up for Su. He is very elusive and throws good feints and kicks. I don’t think he will deal well with the grappling if Kape decides to use it. As I said I just can’t trust Kape to lay the favorite price tag on him.
Bets to consider: Kape ITD
Maycee Barber vs Montana De La Rosa
This is an interesting matchup to try and breakdown. Barber came into the UFC with a lot of buzz around her. She is very young and should be improving fight to fight. She has taken a couple of losses which, in my opinion is very important for a young fighter. She is very physically strong and imposing. Her striking is developing but she has some power. When she gets people hurt, she pounces and goes for the kill. Montana on the other hand is very basic on the feet. Where she wants the fight is on the mat, where she does her best work. She has great top pressure and when she gets on top, she is vicious with her ground and pound. She struggles when she is unable to out physical her opponents and is forced to stand. This is a tough fight for me to pick a side and feel confident, but it could be a sneaky violence spot.
Bets to consider: Under 2.5/FDGTD
Alexandr Romanov vs Chase Sherman
Before I say anything else I need to say this. CHASE SHERMAN IS BACK! Romanov will most likely make this look very easy. I would expect him to take him down, smash him or submit him, collect his win bonus and go home. That is essentially my breakdown. The money line is going to be absurd and there is no way for me to play it. On the flipside there is no way I would ever bet Sherman in this fight. He has no defense to speak of and I can’t even really say he has much power to speak of. Don’t get cute here. Just play the violence if anything, or just straight up pass and enjoy a sanctioned murder on live TV.
Bets to consider: Under/FDGTD/Romanov Rd 1
Clay Guida vs Claudio Puelles
I am really looking forward to this fight. How can you not love Clay? He is an absolute legend of the sport and is still chopping it up at the age of 40. Especially in the lighter weight classes, that’s not something you see every day. Clay is aggressive, in your face, and is not afraid of a fire fight. He is always bouncing around like a madman and seems to have an endless gas tank. If you want to throw down, he will happily oblige you in that type of fight. He has a good wrestling game as well. In this matchup his pressure and pace are going to be key. Claudio is a very talented young up and comer. The one thing he can struggle with is when guys crowd him and don’t give him the space to work. He has great kicks that he will mix to the body and the head. He is a little low volume but it works for the style he fights. He is very fast and accurate when he does throw and has power to hurt guys. Claudio is very skilled in the grappling department and shows a lot of submissions on his record. If he could develop a wrestling game, I think he could be deadly. I am sure that is something he is working on, but the tape I have seen his wrestling is very bad. That also could be due to the fact that he is so comfortable on the mat that he isn’t afraid to pull guard. One thing about Clay is that on his entries he tends to put his head right into position for a guillotine. If he does that here Claudio is going to take that neck home all day and twice on Sundays. I favor ever so slightly Claudio and I actually already made a play on the money line at +110. I don’t like the 15-year difference in age, even though Clay is probably the guy where you can almost throw that out. I really believe that at some point Claudio is going to find a submission, probably early. If this fight gets extended Clay presumably will take over because Puelles has looked gassed the later these fights play out.
Bets to consider: Puelles SUB/FDGTD/Guida DEC
Jessica Andrade vs Amanda Lemos
Main event time! Jessica Andrade is making the move back down to 115 which I think is a very smart move if she can make the cut correctly. She is a little tank of a women and fights just like you would expect her to. She is in your face throwing bombs and if she chooses to can pick you up and slam you to the mat. She is very strong, powerful, and packs a ton of heat in her shots. She is going to be dealing with a lot of heat coming back her way in the form of Amanda Lemos. If you want a very detailed breakdown of this fight, I highly suggest you check out @LucrativeMMA on the DieHardMMAPod. Lemos is a great striker who packs a ton of power. She does tend to slow down as the fight plays out and with an opponent like Andrade, I see that happening here as well. Lemos could absolutely finish her early. But more often than not I see this fight going 2 maybe 3 rounds and Andrade eventually breaking her and finding a finish of her own. I think this fight finishes either way at a very high clip.
Bets to consider: Lemos Rd 1 or 2/Andrade ITD/Under 3.5/FDGTD
I will also be releasing my best bet article this week on Thursday once the props and totals are more widely available. Since I did the full written breakdowns, it will most likely be a list of the best bets.
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